SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The pieces, players and dollars for the San Francisco 49ers’ long-range puzzle plans are all beginning to line up, though nobody involved quite wants to explain it that way right now.
Football is supposed to exist in the present tense. You have to think that way today to make sure you don’t get knocked into yesterday. But teams and players always have to budget for the big picture, too. This has to be about now and also about after-now. Which brings us to the 49ers in this sunny spring moment.
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Is the 49ers’ window to win a Super Bowl still open? Yes, unless you really want to believe that an overtime loss in Super Bowl 58 last February to the greatest player of this generation is a sign of imminent decline. Are the Yorks willing to increase their cash outlay to meet the rising costs of this star-studded roster? So far, the answer is yes.
Are the 49ers making the difficult and expensive decisions to give themselves their best shot both for the upcoming season and also the next few years? We’ll see. But they’re trying. What we’ve witnessed over the last few weeks is that the 49ers are trying very, very hard to thread this needle.
“I know we’ve got a (Super Bowl) window this year,” Christian McCaffrey said on Tuesday after signing a new two-year, $38 million extension through the 2027 season that guarantees him $24 million. “That’s all I know. Focused on this year and taking it one day at a time, one week at a time, one year at a time.”
But of course, the McCaffrey deal is about the future — McCaffrey gets assurances that he’ll be a highly paid part of this team through at least 2026 (before a non-guaranteed 2027 season) and the 49ers get a very contented star tailback who likely will still be in his prime as Brock Purdy moves into his own. And this is all at least partially related to Brandon Aiyuk’s continued negotiations with the 49ers for a new deal and the open secret that Deebo Samuel’s contract can be fairly easily dropped by the 49ers after this coming season.
The puzzle is filling in. The equation is getting balanced out.
Jed York, Paraag Marathe, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have taken care of a few of the steps this season, starting with the release of Arik Armstead through the new contract for Jauan Jennings and now the McCaffrey extension. They’ve still got to get an agreement with Aiyuk as the wide-receiver market explodes. And they are all too aware that they’ll be on the hook for a massive new deal with Purdy next offseason.
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We’ll see if the 49ers’ brass can pull it off. We’ll see if it leads to a Super Bowl victory in the next few years. But the key elements of this plan are clear as can be. And the big-name players can see it, too. Deebo can certainly see it — the 49ers can exit the three-year, $73.5 million extension he signed two summers ago relatively inexpensively next offseason. There were no secrets about that when he signed it and there are no secrets now.
Still, Deebo has shown up for all the OTA sessions this season and was out there in line with rookie Ricky Pearsall and backend roster guys like Danny Gray going through all the drills at the mandatory minicamp.
“I mean, at the end of the day, contract was signed,” Samuel said Tuesday. “And I know what I signed up for. We’re just focused on this year.”
That’s football in the present tense, with an eye to the future. It’s impossible to miss that Armstead was asked to take a big pay cut this offseason (which he refused) because he got hurt and missed a chunk of games for the second consecutive season. If Deebo repeats his up-and-down 2023 performance this season, he will likely be traded or released. If he has a great season like his epic 2021 performance (when he was facing a similar contractual crossroads), Deebo will make a ton of money in 2025, either from the 49ers or somebody else.
So when Deebo heard the bubbling speculation about the 49ers taking trade calls for him during last April’s draft, it didn’t set off many alarms.
“Yeah, I heard it,” Deebo said. “Had a conversation with my agent about it. They were going back and forth with it, whoever it was. It was a thing at first. But gonna move past it. We’re here, and we’re here to get better.”
If the 49ers win, everybody wins. If they win a Super Bowl, everybody’s going to get paid. And right now, the 49ers are picking the players most likely to help them win a Super Bowl this year and in future years.
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McCaffrey, even at a position that recently has been of decreasing value to NFL teams and even as he’s set to turn 28 and after he had 417 regular- and postseason touches last year, might be at the top of that list, right alongside Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Purdy. Can you imagine this 49ers offense without the tailback who scored 21 regular-season touchdowns last year? I don’t think Shanahan can.
Hungry for more 😤 pic.twitter.com/Nl6vUiiQnV
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) June 4, 2024
Just listen to the coach answer my question: What is it about McCaffrey that makes you believe he’ll be worth big dollars even past his 30th birthday?
“When you look at Christian as an individual, I’m not going to compare him to anybody else,” Shanahan said. “Christian is one of the more talented people I’ve ever been around in my life. But if I didn’t speak about that, I’d say he’s almost the biggest overachiever I’ve ever been around in my life. In terms of how obsessive he is of every little thing. …
“As you get older with age, you lose a step or something. That’s not what makes Christian great. He is the same player down-in and down-out. And yeah, it’s great to have all the talent that he does have. And he takes care of his body as good as anyone. So you don’t picture him losing any of that because of that (30) number. But if that stuff does happen, Christian’s always going to be a good football player. Until he decides not to be.”
So McCaffrey, Purdy and Aiyuk, presuming he signs at some point this summer, are the foundational pieces of this offense for now and into the future. Maybe Jennings and Pearsall will get added to that list. On defense, it’s Bosa and Warner, and the 49ers will see about their younger players. And there are some stalwarts and stars who are basically on a year-to-year basis: Trent Williams (it’ll almost certainly be his decision), George Kittle, Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave and Kyle Juszczyk.
But the 49ers have the dollars to pay for this, and they have the players worth paying.
“I really appreciate the players on the team,” McCaffrey said. “Anytime you sign an extension, obviously you’re individually really happy. But also have to think about the other guys on the team who helped you get there and who are a big part of your individual success.
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“Just an overall great organization. Takes care of their players. I’ve had nothing but an amazing experience in my time here. I’m really fired up that I’m staying.”
How long will the 49ers’ Super Bowl window remain open? It’s simplistic to say it’ll be open for as long as Jed York pays for it to remain that way, because it’s always a bit more complicated than that. But with this array of talent, it’s not wholly wrong, either.
GO DEEPERRicky Pearsall taking advantage of Brandon Aiyuk’s absence at 49ers practices(Photo of Christian McCaffrey at Tuesday’s news conference announcing his extension: Tony Avelar / AP)
Tim Kawakami is Editor-in-Chief of The Athletic's Bay Area coverage. Previously, he was a columnist with the Mercury News for 17 years, and before that he covered various beats for the Los Angeles Times and the Philadelphia Daily News. Follow Tim on Twitter @timkawakami
