How will the US pay its debt?
When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money. That can happen by selling marketable securities like treasury bonds.
Politicians and policy experts have put forward countless plans over the years to balance the federal budget and reduce the debt. Most include a combination of deep spending cuts and tax increases to bend the debt curve. Cutting spending.
To pay for this deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds , bills , notes , floating rate notes , and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) .
Maintaining interest rates at low levels can help stimulate the economy, generate tax revenue, and, ultimately, reduce the national debt. Lower interest rates make it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money for goods and services, which creates jobs and increases tax revenues.
The $34 trillion gross federal debt includes debt held by the public as well as debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.
Debt rises when the U.S. spends more than it earns from taxes and other revenue. The public debt results from tax and spending policies that commonly garner public support, but individuals often worry about how the national debt affects their lives and finances.
Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
---|---|
Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
China | $859,400,000,000 |
United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion.
- Japan. $1,098.2. 14.52%
- China. $769.6. 10.17%
- United Kingdom. $693. 9.16%
- Luxembourg. $345.4. 4.57%
- Cayman Islands. $323.8. 4.28%
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
Why the US debt is not a problem?
Not surprisingly, as big as the debt is, government securities remain a prime investment, and the government still borrows at lower interest rates than any other lender. Can the federal government borrow indefinitely at the pace it has for the past six years? Probably not.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
Forget high inflation — we'd see hyperinflation, where prices could increase by millions of percentage points, Snaith says. A scenario like this “grinds an economy to a halt. Prices don't really function the way they should, and because money doesn't hold its value, people don't want to accept it as payment,” he says.
1) Switzerland
Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
Decreased savings and income
The private sector will stop seeking investments that can generate growth due to the incentive to save. This includes the lower amount of capital available once individuals stop investing in securities offered by businesses due to treasury securities being more attractive.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
Economists measure the severity of a nation's debt based on its debt-to-GDP ratio. The U.S. debt held by the public is nearly at 100%. The Committee for Economic Develop of the Conference Board says a responsible debt-to-GDP ratio for a country the size of the U.S. would be 70%.
What happens if China dumps US bonds?
If China sells their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds, the Renminbi will rise and that will lead to financial instability that will lead to a lot of issues such as making their exports more expensive. China is constantly burning through their holdings of FX reserves to “support” the Yuan.
U.S. debt offers the safest haven for Chinese forex reserves, which effectively means that China offers loans to the U.S. so that the U.S. can keep buying the goods China produces.
A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future. Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth.
Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies.
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Offered in a wide range of maturities.
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