When was the last time mortgage rates were 3 percent?
Looking at the past four decades, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage peaked in 1981, rising to roughly 16 percent. The average 30-year rate bottomed in 2021 at just under 3 percent. Today, the cost of a typical 30-year mortgage is similar to rates seen in the later 1990s, in the 7 percent range.
The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
Interest rates reached their highest point in modern history in October 1981 when they peaked at 18.63%, according to the Freddie Mac data. Fixed mortgage rates declined from there, but they finished the decade at around 10%.
In February 1980, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 12.85%. By October 1981, the average rate had risen to a whopping 18.63%. Mortgage rates gradually cooled as the decade wore on. By March 1985, the average 30-year mortgage rate was roughly 13%, and at the end of the decade, rates dipped below the 10% mark.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
But barring any major shocks to the system, most analysts agree that mortgage rates are unlikely to return to 3% in the foreseeable future.
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae likewise raised its outlook, now expecting 30-year mortgage rates to be at 6.4 percent by the end of 2024, compared to an earlier forecast of 5.8 percent.
Interest rates have held steady since July 2023.
The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.
2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever
And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021. The average mortgage rate for that year was 2.96%.
As of Apr. 24, 2024, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.51%, 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.39%, 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.88%, and 10-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.80%. Average rates for other loan types include 7.26% for an FHA 30-year fixed mortgage and 7.20% for a jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage.
What will the interest rate be in 5 years?
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
The reason interest rates, which ultimately are set by the Federal Reserve, exploded in 1980 was housings' arch nemesis, runaway inflation. The Fed funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, hit 20 percent in 1980, and 21 percent in June 1981.
Imagine paying over 18% interest on a 30-year fixed mortgage. It's almost unthinkable. But that was the reality for home buyers in October 1981 – a year when the average rate was almost 17%. Unlike today, in the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve was waging a war with inflation.
No, CD rates have started incrementally dropping in 2024. Both national average and high-yield CD rates saw a slowdown in increases last year.
One reason is that as the Federal Reserve presumably begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.
When inflation is running high, the Fed raises those short-term rates to slow the economy and reduce pressure on prices. But higher interest rates make it more expensive for banks to borrow, so they raise their rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, to compensate.
Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.
The March Housing Forecast from Fannie Mae puts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.7% during the first quarter of 2024, falling to 6.4% by year-end. This reflects an upward revision in Fannie's analysis: Just last month, the mortgage giant expected rates would dip below 6% at the end of this year.
How to buy down interest rate?
The easiest way to buy down your mortgage rate is to buy discount points. Each point is 1.0 percent of your mortgage amount, and reduces your mortgage rate by 0.25 percent.
Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."
Current Situation. The Fed is currently raising interest rates to counteract inflation. The policymakers expect rates to stay above 5% in 2024 and around 4% by the end of 2025.
The nation's top economists say the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates higher than 2.5 percent — often considered the “goldilocks,” not-too-tight, not-too-loose level for its benchmark federal funds rate — until the end of 2026, Bankrate's quarterly economists' poll found.
Despite mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high, most housing market experts expect them to recede over 2024, assuming the Federal Reserve acts on its signaled interest rate cuts. However, whether mortgage rates fade enough to create a meaningful shift in home affordability remains uncertain.
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